Several years ago, I nearly became a weather forecaster. I would have been one of those people who tell when a storm is coming, and when. Sometimes I regret not going down that path. If I had, I would know how they can say when a storm will hit. Sometimes they even state an exact time. I’m sure that’s based on wind speeds and directions, but they often make it sound as though the storm has a schedule to keep. I’ve yet to see a storm wearing a watch or carrying a clock. Usually if a storm is carrying anything, it’s best to remain indoors and under cover.
Now I hear that there is a prediction saying that we will have another Polar Vortex this year. If they could really predict something like that, why didn’t they predict the one we got last year? So I have my doubts. I’ll keep an open mind on that subject, but I am, by no means, certain that will happen. After all, they have trouble predicting the weather for next week.
This is no slam against them, weather is composed of so many factors that it is hard to corral them all and analyze them. We don’t have a computer capable of that as yet. That may come in the future but we aren’t there yet.
That’s the part that I think I would find most interesting. How can a computer model can predict something as complex as the weather. OK, I really mean how can a computer model try to predict something as complex as the weather.
I didn’t go that way because that was going to require that I join the United States Navy and I wasn’t sure that I wanted to do that. In retrospect, I don’t think I was mature enough to join the Navy. They wouldn’t have wanted a child like I was at the time. Maybe it would have made me grow up sooner, I don’t know. I certainly would have been able to explain what the weather was going to do. That I regret not doing.
Weather is something that everyone has an opinion on, but what do we really know about it? Precious little, really, I suspect. Of course, since I’m not a meteorologist, I don’t know that for certain. I’m just guessing from the past track record that we are not yet able to be accurate beyond the next couple of days. I don’t believe that humans have reached the point of predicting what the weather will be beyond a few days. It just boils down to guesswork a lot of times. Weather forecasters get it wrong more often than not. They guess, but those guesses are educated ones.
The next time you are stuck off a topic of conversation, try the weather and see if you can find someone who may know a little of how it works. If you find someone, let me know. I’d like to learn how weather actually works.